2024 NBA Draft lottery primer

Draft lottery odds:

The Pistons and Wizards have the best odds to land the No. 1 pick. They each have a 14.0% chance to pick first overall.

From there, the Hornets (13.3%), Trail Blazers (13.2%), Spurs (10.5%), Raptors (9.0%), Grizzlies (7.5%), Jazz (6%) and Rockets (6% across two picks) have the next-best odds to receive the first overall selection.

When the NBA introduced its new lottery format in 2019, the selling point was that the new system flattened the odds, making it less likely that the league’s very worst teams would claim a top pick.

Before the NBA tweaked the lottery rules, there was a 60.5% chance that one of the league’s bottom three teams would secure the No. 1 pick and only a 27.6% chance that a team in the 5-14 range of the lottery standings would do so. Now, those odds are 42.0% and 45.5%, respectively.

Still, there haven’t been many major surprises in the years since the new format was implemented.

The Pelicans moved up from No. 7 in the lottery standings in 2019 to claim the first overall pick, which they used on Zion Williamson. Since then, though, every team to win the draft lottery has been in the top three in the lottery standings.

Perhaps we’re due for a more significant shakeup in 2024. There’s a 18.5% chance that a team in the back half of the lottery (Nos. 8-14) wins the No. 1 pick. That works out to better than 1-in-6 odds, and this will be the sixth time the NBA has employed its revamped lottery format.

For this year’s full draft lottery odds for all 14 spots, click here.

For full details on the current lottery format, click here.

Trades affecting the draft lottery:

The Raptors traded their 2023 first-round pick to the Spurs, but they would keep that selection if it lands within the top six. There’s a 45.8% chance that will happen and a 54.2% chance it will slip to No. 7 or below and be sent to San Antonio. If Toronto retains its first-rounder this year, the club would instead owe its 2025 first-round pick (top-six protected) to the Spurs.

The Jazz would owe the Thunder their first-round pick if it lands outside of the top 10, but since Utah will enter Sunday at No. 8 in the lottery standings, there’s only a 0.5% chance of that happening. In all likelihood, the Jazz will instead owe their top-10-protected 2025 first-rounder to Oklahoma City.

The Rockets acquired the Nets‘ unprotected first-round pick, which will likely land at either No. 9 (50.7%) or No. 10 (25.9%). However, Houston’s own first-rounder has a 92.8% chance of being sent to the Thunder. It will probably be the No. 12 pick, but if it moves into the top four (7.2%), the Rockets would keep it.

Finally, the Warriors‘ first-round pick, which projects to be No. 14, will almost certainly be sent to the Trail Blazers. There’s a 96.6% chance it will be the 14th overall pick and be sent to Portland and just a 3.4% chance it will move into the top four and be retained by Golden State.

Draft lottery representatives:

The representatives for each of this year’s lottery teams are as follows, according to a pair of announcements from the NBA:

• Detroit Pistons
  
  • On stage: Ausar Thompson
    
  • Lottery room: Jon Phelps (senior director of basketball strategy)
• Washington Wizards
  
  • On stage: Bilal Coulibaly
  • Lottery room: Will Dawkins (general manager)
• Charlotte Hornets
  
  • On stage: Brandon Miller
  • Lottery room: Rick Schnall (team co-owner)
    
• Portland Trail Blazers
  
  • On stage: Scoot Henderson
  • Lottery room: Sergi Oliva (assistant GM)
• San Antonio Spurs
  
  • On stage: Brian Wright (general manager)
  • Lottery room: Brandon Leibsohn (senior manager of basketball strategy and legal affairs)
• Toronto Raptors
  
  • On stage: Scottie Barnes
  • Lottery room: Dan Tolzman (assistant GM / VP of player personnel)
    
• Memphis Grizzlies
  
  • On stage: Tayshaun Prince (VP of basketball affairs)
    
  • Lottery room: Zach Kleiman (president of basketball operations)
    
• Utah Jazz
  
  • On stage: Thurl Bailey (former Jazz player / current Jazz broadcaster)
  • Lottery room: Danny Ainge (CEO)
• Houston Rockets
  
  • On stage: Ime Udoka (head coach)
  • Lottery room: Sam Strantz (associate legal counsel)
• Atlanta Hawks
  
  • On stage: Landry Fields (general manager)
    
  • Lottery room: Daniel Starkman (VP of player personnel)
• Chicago Bulls
  
  • On stage: Julian Phillips
    
  • Lottery room: Pat Connelly (assistant GM)
• Oklahoma City Thunder
  • On stage: None
  • Lottery room: None
  • Note: The Thunder won’t have any representatives on hand because they don’t have a path to a top-four pick.
• Sacramento Kings
  
  • On stage: Keegan Murray
  • Lottery room: John Kehriotis (minority owner / executive board member)
• Golden State Warriors
  
  • On stage: Brandin Podziemski
  • Lottery room: Raymond Ridder (senior VP of communications)