Pacers vs. Lakers odds, picks, predictions: 3 best bets for Sunday 3/24

Pacers vs. Lakers Odds

Sunday, March 24, 10 p.m. ET, NBA TV

Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute NBA odds here.

Indiana Pacers

The Pacers generally face the Lakers twice per season since there isn’t much reason to play each other more often given the different conferences and not much history connecting the two franchises. But that could change after the Lakers embarrassed the Pacers in the In-Season Tournament finals.

It’s not a great matchup for the Pacers, who do a great job at limiting opponent 3-pointers, but give up a lot in the interior — the place where the Lakers do the most damage.

On the other end, the Lakers give up a lot of midrange shots and limit the paint and 3-point line. Someone who could see a benefit from that defensive profile is Pascal Siakam — a player who wasn’t on the Pacers when these teams met in the IST. Siakam gets 40% of his shots from the midrange and the Lakers allow 35.2% of opponent shots from that range since the trade deadline — when the league stopped calling as many fouls — which is 27th in the league. James will likely draw the Siakam assignment, and at his age, I like Siakam to do some midrange damage.

Los Angeles Lakers

I mentioned the league shift in foul calling, moving away from such an offense-heavy style of refereeing. Some teams that have relied on getting to the line by getting into the paint and drawing contact haven’t fared as well since the rule shift — and the Lakers are one of those teams.

Under Darvin Ham, the Lakers have created an identity based around drawing fouls on offense and not fouling on defense. As a result, L.A. has struggled against the spread since the officiating shift, going just 8-9 ATS since Feb. 9.

On the Pacers side, they’re a team that could be exploited in the paint — and still can — but that shift away from foul-calling is only to their benefit, as they allow the second-highest free-throw rate to opposing offenses in the league.

Pacers vs. Lakers

Betting Pick & Prediction

Despite the matchup edge for Los Angeles, I like Indiana to cover the spread as road 'dogs. I have this modeled in a range that makes this a play on the Pacers down to +2.5 for a full unit. And given the revenge angle of losing in the IST and the lessened advantage created by the officiating change, that’s enough for me to take Indiana here.

The Pacers are team that will take that loss personally. This season, Indiana is 21-12-3 ATS when it lost the previous head-to-head matchup. Given that the last matchup was the IST, I’ll even put a little on the moneyline for an outright win.

For player props, I like a points play for Siakam to go over his line. Last game his line was 21.5, which he cleared, but he’s averaging 24.6 points per game against the Lakers since the Bubble season and he’s scored 22 or more in five of his last seven games against L.A. in that time.

I also like Anthony Davis to exceed 24.5 points — a number he's cleared in the last three games against Myles Turner since the Bubble.

Pick: Pacers +3.5 (Win 1u) | Pascal Siakam Over 21.5 points (Risk .5u) | Anthony Davis Over 24.5 points (Risk .5u)